Filling the Solution Void
The parable of the man and the tiger
Once upon a time, there was a man who lived in a village in the
jungle. In the jungle, there was a tiger, and the man knew the tiger
would come at night and eat him. The man held council with the other
men of the village, and they came up with a plan: They would raise a
fence all around the village, every man contributing ten meters. The
man went home, built ten meters of fence, and went to bed. At night,
the tiger entered his house and ate him. You see, his neighbor had
built no fence, for he saw no need for hurry. And his neighbor had
built no fence, for he had lost his arms in an accident. And his
neighbor had built no fence, for he did not believe in tigers.
The moral lesson of this story is the simplest you can think of: It
is not about the ten meters of fence. It is about the tiger, about
not getting eaten. When the tiger enters your home, it is too late
to try something different, or cry injustice. If your plan cannot
reliably protect you from the tiger, you need a new plan, no matter
how much thought and effort you put into your ten meters of fence.
Not getting eaten by the tiger is the only objective of the plan –
all else is a distraction.
The example of Mahatma Gandhi
On the 12th of March 1930, a man known to history as Mahatma
Gandhi set off towards Dandi at the eastern coast of India, along
with 78 companions, to illegally extract salt from the ocean.
Soon, millions of Indians all over joined this act of mass civil
disobedience against British rule. Gandhi had favored salt as the
object of political action because of its ubiquitous role in every
Indian's household, rich or poor. And although the British
response was harsh, and there were no immediate concessions, the
Salt March is today known as a cornerstone event of the Indian
independence movement, proving how simple acts of resistance were
within reach of anyone. And to us, the event teaches another
lesson: The economy is an immensely potent target for political
action, to bring about needed change.
To the point
Climate change can be solved, and must be solved. The current
global climate mitigation effort is helplessly steering towards
total failure, for logical reasons that will be made clear in this
text. A new movement of climate action is required, tailor made
for realistically countering root causes of climate change. The
movement must be built around an idea so straight-forward,
reasonable and fair that anyone can pick it up at once. This
solutions exists, and will be made clear over the course of this
text, in all necessary detail.
Climate change is caused by the middle and upper class
population's demand for consumer goods/services and energy. The
economics of billions of human beings cooperating for this end,
devising governments and industries to do their bidding, is an
immensely powerful force headed for global ecosystem collapse. The
failure of today's effort against climate change is due to a
fundamental lack of understanding of this force; why it exists,
what makes it so powerful, and where it can and cannot be fought.
The situation requires a mass popular movement against private
over-consumption. Using the tried and tested tool of social
influence through conformity, mankind's destructive drive towards
ever-increasing material wealth can be halted. Start out simple:
Increase the emotional labor required for shopping, as your
activists line the entrances of malls. Then watch your ranks grow
as citizens realize that the means to stop the doomsday clock of
climate change are in fact not out of reach, but are simple,
logical and just. Any decrease in consumption will be matched by
an immediate decrease in emissions, which is the one thing the
world needs now. And as the public transforms through your
movement, watch how the green transition becomes a juggernaut, as
paralysis, procrastination and cultural war turns into united
determination: We can slay the tiger.
Some Central Premises
Before moving on to the method in detail, here are a few statements
to show the way of thinking that underpins the whole. If
these statements are offensive or unacceptable to you, you are
unlikely to find what you seek in the remainder of this text.
1. Your personal climate-friendly acts are pointless.
Climate change is a big, big, problem, caused by emissions from the
activities of billions of human beings. Your preference for bus over car, eating vegan,
buying second-hand – none of these actions matter, unless they are part of a system that makes sure a large number of people do the same. And as for now, this system does not exist. You can do your part all you like, the problem is that almost nobody else does theirs, and the current paradigm of climate activism provides you with no tools to change that. Your effort as an activist must be directed at creating the new system, so that the entire wall is built and keeps the tiger out. Getting the system up and running is infinitely more important than your own lifestyle choices.
2. The oil industry is not the cause of climate change, just the
medium that the cause works through.
The oil industry was created by society to deliver fuel. If you
removed it, society would quickly devise another way to get fuel.
The wealth of the industry comes from the high value the consumers
place on the product. The power of the industry comes from society
looking the other way from their crimes and transgressions, to make
sure the fuel supply is uninterrupted. The activist movement sees a
separation between the oil industry and society; this is an
illusion. Without society’s demand for fossil fuel, there is no oil
industry. With society’s demand for fossil fuel, there will always
be an oil industry.
This example applies to any other industry as well. They exist, and pollute, because there is a large demand for the products or services of this specific polluting activity. Killing an industry takes a massive effort, and demand will make society recreate the industry anyway.
3. Politicians are just doing their job as representatives of the
majority, and will not obey activists.
“How dare you?” cried Greta Thunberg upon meeting the world leaders.
The leaders were there as elected representatives for their
societies. They dared to, because they did not dare not to. A
politician who changes course by own initiative and begins accepting
concessions for the climate on behalf of voters who did not ask for
them, gets replaced by a politician who will remain loyal to the
voting majority. Activists regard politicians as flawed, immoral
individuals – this is a false premise. Elected politicians are no
better or worse than the society that chose them as representatives
of itself. They do as they are told, within bounds of what is economically possible.
Notice the similarity with the previous point. Politicians and industry are a lot alike. They are both mechanisms devised and guided by mass demand to provide us with what we want.
4. You have no short cuts to political influence. It's all hard work.
There are two ways to political influence: Having a lot of money (or arms), and making a large number of people agree with your views. Climate activists imagine a third way, a short cut: political protest. However, spectacular protest and civil disobedience only works when there is significant
hidden or unaware approval for the cause – such as was the case for
Gandhi’s India. Attention is a currency, which you spend to get
noticed by those who might support you with their numbers. A
currency that cannot be spent to get what you want, is worthless. If
you cannot quickly convert your attention into power, society’s eyes
will soon move on. Activists perform spectacular protests to make
demands from politicians. But without power, you do not have demands
– you just have wishes, to be ignored by anyone who does not share
them. To make an impact in climate politics, you need to do the hard work of making people agree with your views.
"But what about all the exceptions from these claims? Corrupt CEOs
and politicians lying about their intentions?"
Yes, there are multiple exceptions – on the micro level, in the
details. On the macro level, however, the claims hold true:
Industry and politicians are the means with which society performs
specific tasks, and they are governed by a few straight-forward
principles of material interest. And the macro level is where
climate change happens, and where we need to think if we are to
design a cure.
The Cure
The method for dealing with climate change is a popular movement
protesting private overconsumption. What this means is the act of
gathering people to protest other people's over-consumption at or
near the locations where these people make the choice to
over-consume.
Did you not just say that protest is pointless?
Political protest is pointless, because politicians are steered by
forces much greater, and by people far more numerous, than climate
protesters. Unless you can make very very many people join your
rally, politicians are immune. Protest against other individuals,
however, is not pointless, because on their own, human beings are
very susceptible to being influenced – in particular by crowds.
This is the power of social influence: enforcer of laws, builder
of world religions, shaper of cultures. The oldest form of power,
immensely potent. All you need is numbers, and for numbers you
need a cause and leadership.
What is the purpose of this protest, in plain words?
Two things:
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1. To increase the emotional labor required for over-consumption
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2. To show all people that an effective form of climate action
is possible, and within reach for anyone.
These two are interconnected: the tool for causing emission cuts,
and the hand that wields the tool. The climate movement has no
impact without a method. A method for emission cuts, no matter how
logical, can do nothing without a movement.
Why over-consumption, of all purposes?
For a number of reasons.
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1. Consumption is the end purpose of nearly all industry, with
its fossil fuel demand, and unnecessary consumption is a
significant chunk of that. Reducing over-consumption instantly
reduces the demand and use of fossil fuels, and the emissions
that follow. Instant emission cuts, just what the climate needs.
Can you think of any other form of climate action that works
immediately?
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2. Over-consumption can be removed from the economy with no ill
effects to society, apart from the short-term displacement of
laborers. See economics for a much deeper discussion of
this premise.
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3. It is perfectly fair and moral. The majority of the world’s
population does not have the privilege of getting to buy a new
mobile phone whenever they’re tired of the old, or fly to
foreign countries on vacation, or eat meat in abundance. Yet
many of these same people will be suffering the most under the
disastrous impact of climate change. This is well know among the
people from whom you will be recruiting. The combination of
rational and moral justification, combined with insights of the
economical perks, will make your position unassailable.
A protest against other individuals is aggressive and intrusive.
Why not convince people with arguments instead?
Because arguments do not make people consume less. If they had,
this crisis would have been over now. People overconsume because it gives emotional feedback. This means climate action needs to be competitive on the emotional level – and argument-based activism is not competitve by any means. On the other hand, appeals to conformity, the approval or disapproval of the pack, speaks straight to the emotions of the individual.
I don't think shaming people works.
Why not? Religions use shame to successfully influence societies
with billions of people. Shame is a very powerful motivator,
possibly only second to money. People care very much about what
society around them thinks about their behavior. If you get into a
position where you can wield it effectively, you can stop
over-consumption.
It's unfair.
Against whom? The majority of the world’s population cannot
over-consume at all, but will still be hit by climate change
nonetheless. Look at what is at stake. Is it really unfair to make
privileged middle class people feel uncomfortable about creating
environmentally destructive demand?
But what about the wealthy? They are the ones who cause climate
change, they should be held responsible.
There is so much to unpack from this statement, it gets its own
page. For now,
suffice to say that cutting demand for consumer goods will hurt
the rich a lot more than you could possibly do by direct
confrontation.
OK, so we’re doing this. But why so passive, why not go all the
way? Blocking shopping malls? Sabotage? Shouting slogans,
confronting people?
You are building a popular movement. To be successful, you must
fulfill two criteria:
- 1. Participation must be as easy as possible
- 2. Opposition must be as difficult as possible
Blocking, interrupting and sabotaging are not actions most people
will willingly join. On the other hand, these acts will quickly
motivate the rest of society to spend sufficient energy as to take
action against your movement. What you want is to find a sweet
spot where your people will feel safe and comfortable – while
still being able to influence consumers’ choices – and be seen as
too harmless to bother with breaking social norms or the law to
remove. By the time they recognize the power of your movement, you
will be too great for anyone to stop.
So this will end climate change?
First and foremost, it will slow climate change. Immediate
emission cuts will reduce the speed at which the crisis happens,
which will purchase more time for other climate mitigation
efforts, such as clean energy. Those efforts today, by themselves,
are hopelessly inadequate to deal with the full crisis, as
everybody knows deep down. Significantly reduced over-consumption
will reduce the scope of the green transition and make it possible
to achieve. Second, as your movement grows, people will see the
climate struggle with new eyes: no longer hopeless. This will
accelerate other forms of climate effort, triggering what is known
as the collective tipping point, where most of humanity starts
pulling in the same direction to deal with the crisis.
So where should we protest?
A protest needs to happen in as close proximity as possible to
where consumers make their decisions on over-consumption. When
they are weighing price and hassle against material desire, you
want to be there in their heads, tipping the scales. You want
their kids to see you, and ask about the connection between
consumption and climate change. You want to remind people about
their climate concern, which they conveniently forgot before going
out. The outside of a shopping mall (not the inside – as easy as
possible, remember?) is probably an ideal location for this, but
feel free to try other things.
People are just going to get defensive, and buy stuff to spite us.
Yes, the good old scourge of progressive action – the target
audience going defensive, refusing to be convinced by your
arguments. But our movement does not employ arguments – it uses
emotional and social pressure. The thing about being defensive is
that it is exhausting. Doing something out of spite costs a lot
more energy than doing it out of ignorance. If you can keep the
protests up, most people will change their behavior to get out of
the emotional discomfort.
This will make so many people unemployed.
Yes. And that is a good thing for the local economy, national
democracy and world peace. See
economy for a thorough discussion.
What is the solution void?
Why is this document called “Filling the solution void”? The
solution void is the core of our analysis, and is a rational take
on why the world is failing so badly to deal with the climate
crisis. The premise is that the current effort on the political,
economical and technological level to combat climate change is
insufficient to prevent global catastrophe – and everybody knows
this, deep down. This creates an evil circle of emotional
responses that blocks the search for a functional solution.
The dysfunctions
Upon realizing that the struggle for the climate is lost, there
are three main forms of reaction:
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1. Denial. Climate change deniers, in their effort to
make the bad feelings go away, sabotage the discourse on climate
change and raise the stakes for participation.
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2. Distraction. Most people, while formally acknowledging
the climate reality, try to think of other things – and climate
becomes a kind of seasoning on everyday issues. Society
satisfies itself with minor course corrections, and never think
about the issue for long enough to see realistic solutions.
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3. Defiance. For many people, doing nothing about a
crisis we have instigated, is immoral. Thus, we get a climate
activist whose goal is to mitigate this negative feeling. The
activist limits himself to fractions of a solution, with no care
for assembling these into the global system required for
producing large-scale emission cuts. Someone else can do that.
Despite his endless defeats against polluters, the climate
activist never critically assesses his own methods, because he
does not need to: In the end, he values his own emotional payoff
from participation, over the fate of the ecosystem. He does not
desire victory enough to try new strategies.
None of these three are in a position to produce a functional
solution to climate change. And that is why the human effort to
stop the catastrophe is failing.
Until now. With the popular movement against over-consumption
coming out of the left field, the rules of the game are turned
around. A real solution is possible. And when that becomes
apparent, the foundation for the solution void will dissolve. And
that changes everything. The entire social reality of climate
change – denial, pessimism, halfhearted plans; society’s deep
lethargy – forget about all of it. Everybody gets to freely decide
their stance over again. This is why the popular movement against
over-consumption will bring about the collective tipping point,
which will end the crisis.
Some Goals
You need goals that you can use to mark your progress. I have some
suggestions in the next paragraph. All of these should be
attainable if you apply a cyclic method:
- 1. Recruit participants
- 2. Stage protests against private over-consumption
- 3. Get attention
The input of the method is effort. All you need is available
before you: people, time, materials for your signs, places to
protest. No significant funds required, no political majority. And
as you work, you might want to consider these goals:
Short term
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1. Successfully doing a protest. The first achievement is
to get enough people with you to participate. You should set a
minimum number of participants for doing it, so that you can
stand your ground together, as the position will feel highly
visible and exposed. I suggest at least eight participants.
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2. Getting passers-by to join. People going past your
protest will contact you, offering criticism or encouragement.
Convince one or more of them to join you, even just for five
minutes
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3. Have a protest in two locations simultaneously. People
will have seen this several places. It becomes a thing.
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4. Do protests consistently. Endurance is extremely
important in matters of climate activism. Getting enough people
to join your cause so that you can consistently protest with
more than the minimum number of participants whenever you want
to, is a core goal of your movement. This is the main goal in
the short term.
Medium term
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1. Media attention.Get coverage in the local newspaper.
This coverage can be collected and distributed to whomever you
seek attention/participation from. Media attention allows you to
recruit beyond your immediate social circle.
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2. Condemned in the media. Getting a negative reaction
visible to everyone is a sure sign that you are being noticed.
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3. Copycat protest group in different location. This
happens when your actions have garnered enough attention as to
inspire climate concerned individuals elsewhere, and they
initiate a similar protest. This is the most important goal of
the whole movement, the difference between success and failure.
Climate change is too great of a problem to be dealt with by one
cohesive organization. Only with a loose popular movement,
spreading spontaneously by example and inspiration, can you
reach the scale needed for a global impact.
Long term
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1. Copycat group in different country. Copied abroad has
greater impact than domestically, and less difficult. Climate
concerned citizens exist in all nations, and will be picking up
good ideas.
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2. Economical impact. An industry or business visibly
down-scaling or even going bankrupt, pointing to your movement
as the cause, is a massive achievement that shows the power of
social influence.
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3. Counter-protesters. At one point, a counter-movement
will appear, to defend the values of consumerism and the system.
It will fail. Its members will do an even better job of scaring
consumers off than you. The more angry, the better. Facts and
morals are overwhelmingly on your side, and will power your
motivation much more than theirs.
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4. Commercialization. Endurance is extremely important in
matters of climate activism. Getting enough people to join your
cause so that you can consistently protest with more than the
minimum number of participants whenever you want to, is a core
goal of your movement. This is the main goal in the short term.
About Me
I use the name Clausius for my writings, for I approach the
subject of economics with the tools of the thermophysicist. The
economy resembles an engine, where the only thing that matters is
how much utility society can create with its economical inputs.
Most of the dense details of economics have been made up by society to support
attempts to by-pass this hard reality. The understanding of
this, unlocks the insight that a popular movement against
overconsumption is the only plausible way to fight climate change
right now.
I have myself organized protests against overconsumption, in an
attempt to get such a movement off the ground. We found the form
of protest suitable for ordinary people. The failure lay in my own
inability to inspire strangers to join, to get the movement over
that first and greatest of hurdles. Thus, I have relegated myself
to the second most important task: to distill and promote the idea
of the movement against overconsumption, in the hope that you –
the reader – will be the one who can create this movement and get
it running.